Author: Helen Thomas

Home Improvement Growth Expected to Continue in 2017

Like an extreme theme-park rollercoaster, the U.S. housing market has dipped and turned and raced and plummeted over the past decade. And, when the housing market crashed in 2007, it was not surprising that home improvement spending also declined. Ten years later, the overall housing market is stable, but the construction of single-family homes has been very slow to recover. As detailed in the April edition of the Retail Industry Briefing Book, single-family housing starts hit 872,000 in February; up slightly from January’s figures, but still sitting below pre-recession levels.

The home-improvement industry however, has fared much better in the aftermath of the housing market bust and economic recession. As seen on page 27 of the April RIBB, the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) compiled by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University “projects that annual growth in home improvement and repair expenditures will remain elevated throughout 2017 with spending levels ending the year up 6.7 percent at $317 billion.”

Home Improvement Retail IndustryIn their January 2017 report Emerging Trends in the Remodeling Market, the JCHS further explains that the more than 130 million homes in the United States require regular investment to offset normal depreciation. And, many households that might have traded up to more desirable homes during the recession decided to make improvements to their current homes instead. In addition, federal and state stimulus programs encouraged homeowners to invest in energy-efficient upgrades that they might otherwise have deferred.

“Growth in home prices is continuing at a healthy pace and encouraging homeowners to make remodeling investments,” says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies.

That’s great news for home improvement stores like The Home Depot and Lowes. As seen on page 39 of the April RIBB, The Home Depot’s closing stock price is up 10% year-to-date and Lowe’s stock price is up 16% year-to-date. And, as detailed on page 34 of the RIBB, using data compiled for the Accelerated Analytics Vendor Index, dollars sold per week in 2017 is consistently greater than the same week in 2016 for The Home Depot and Lowes.

Sources: JCHS, wsj.com

Luxury Retailers Suffer Amid the Transparency of Online Competition

Luxury retailers have historically been considered immune to the challenges of mass-market chains, like declining foot traffic and endless price wars, but that no longer appears to be true. High-end retailers are learning that even wealthy customers are hunting for better deals and selection empowered by the pricing and supply transparency of an omni-channel marketplace.

“In the past, women had loyalty to a particular department store, and they would come in with a page torn from the retailer’s catalog and say, ‘I want that look,” said Robert Burke, the former fashion director of Bergdorf Goodman who now runs his own consulting firm.

According to global management consulting firm Bain & Co., sales of personal luxury goods such as apparel and handbags fell 1% last year, the first decline since 2009.

Few are feeling the heat like luxury retailer Neiman Marcus, which holds nearly $5 billion in debt. When Neiman Marcus opened its first store in Dallas in 1907, they built their brand catering to the wealthy.

“Our mantra had always been, ‘There is nothing too expensive for our customer,” one former executive said.

Neiman Marcus routinely increased average prices by 7% – 9% annually until 2015. But the model of lifting profits by simply raising prices has fallen out of fashion. The same strategy has been common among many luxury retailers giving consumers little choice because distribution of high-end goods was tightly controlled by the brands. And until recently, few luxury goods were sold online giving brands tighter control of pricing.

“One of the tricks to luxury is price discipline,” said Aaron Cheris, the head of Bain’s retail practice for the Americas. Shoppers pay full price, he said, when they can’t “get stuff for less.”

But competition from online and discount retailers, where prices change rapidly to remain competitive, is forcing discounts and forcing change to remain competitive.

In today’s WSJ Logistics Report, author Paul Page wrote that luxury retailers need to “look for ways to lower production and distribution costs, use data in a more sophisticated way and follow their customers in displaying a new kind of discipline in pricing.”

Accelerated Analytics provides POS reporting and analysis for several luxury brands like Bvlgari, Chanel, Oscar de la Renta and more, who sell through luxury retailers like Neiman Marcus & Bergdorf Goodman. You can learn more about our expert data and analysis solutions for fashion and beauty vendors on the solutions pages of our website.

Sources: wsj.com, WSJ Logistics Report

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2017’s Year-to-Date Store Closings Top Historical High Set in 2008

According to a Credit Suisse report released Thursday, 2017 year-to-date store closings have already topped the historical high set in 2008 when the last U.S. recession was raging. About 2,880 stores have closed year to date compared to 1,153 at the same time last year. And since 60 percent of store closures are typically announced in the first five months of the year, Credit Suisse estimates that there could be as many as 8,640 store closings this year.

This week saw stores at both ends of the price spectrum preparing to close their doors. Payless Inc. shoe chain filed for Retail Stores Closingbankruptcy on Tuesday and announced plans to close hundreds of locations. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren Corp announced it will close its flagship Fifth Avenue Polo store.

While the unemployment rate fell from 4.7 percent to 4.5 percent in March (the lowest since May of 2007), the retail industry took a hit with the worst two months for job creation since December 2009, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Almost 30,000 retail workers lost their jobs in March, and more than 60,000 jobs have been eliminated since January.

“Retail is a mess, to say the least” proclaimed Jason Mudrick, hedge fund manager and the founder and current President and CIO of Mudrick Capital Management, on Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas earlier this week. He continued, “this is not a cyclical issue . . . this is a forever trend.”

As stores are closing faster than ever, US shopping malls are left with a glut of space to fill. Last month CEO of Urban Outfitters Richard Hayne sized up the situation by saying, “This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst,” he said. “We are seeing the results: doors shuttering and rents retreating. This trend will continue for the foreseeable future and may even accelerate.”

Industry analysts like Oliver Chen at Cowen & Co recommend that retailers “refocus on customers. Management needs to be fixated on speed of delivery, speed of supply chain, and be able to test read and react to new and emerging trends.”

Detailed, expert reporting and analysis of retail POS data enables vendors to do just that. In a blog post on our site earlier this week, technology journalist Scott Koegler wrote about the benefits of using a retail data analysis tool like Accelerated Analytics to improve supply chain responsiveness.

“You can look at trends and predict item performance down to the shelf level in order to plan your recommendations to store buyers,” wrote Koegler. He continued, “Forward thinking suppliers are already taking advantage of the data their customers give them to sell more of their products.”

Sources: CNBC.com, Bloomberg.com, WashingtonPost.com

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DIY Retailers Bloom Into Spring

DIY Retailers Home Depot

Barron’s reported on Sunday that home improvement retailers The Home Depot and Lowe’s are strongly positioned financially going into Spring. Homeowners are undertaking renovations and projects due to a healthier economy and improved real estate markets. Barron’s also states that The Home Depot and Lowe’s are “Amazon-proof” as home improvement is low on the list of categories Amazon is penetrating.

The Home Depot has out-performed Lowe’s over the last several quarters in same-store performance, but Lowe’s is attractive to investors for its lower price-to-earnings ratio. Both retailers are expected to see revenue and stock price increases.

Lowe’s trades at $82, 18 times its $4.62 earnings per share, while The Home Depot trades at $147, 20.4 times its earnings of $7.19 per share.

Accelerated Analytics provides POS reporting and analysis for dozens of DIY vendors who sell through home improvement retailers, reporting on over $11B in sales per year in this segment alone. DIY vendors can learn more about our expert solutions for DIY, home and hardware vendors on our new website solutions pages.

Source: Reuters.com

Do You Really Know How Your Products Are Performing?

Point of Sale Data

Suppliers count it as a win when they place a product line with a major DIY chain like Home Depot or Lowes. But understanding the details of how your products are selling can enable you to maximize your efforts and make the most of the typically slim margins you’re able to negotiate. The good news is that your retailers give you the information you need every week. But you need to use the right tools to turn their raw data into actionable insights.

Get the data

Major retailers routinely make their point-of-sale (POS) transaction data available to their suppliers, but the complexities of collecting and digesting it in a reasonable time frame get in the way of actually using the information. While some retailers use the standard EDI 852 format to deliver their weekly cash register data to suppliers, each retailer modifies the content of those files to meet their own needs. That means you need to convert the files to a common format before you can even start to analyze them. And some retailers don’t use the standard format, preferring to send spreadsheets or simply raw text files, further complicating the job of standardizing the data and readying it for analysis.

Look inside

The good news is that once you’ve cracked the code and converted all that POS data into information, you can look at trends and results from a variety of different perspectives. From a high level, the data can let you know what regions and which stores are selling each item. And analysis platforms like Accelerated Analytics  go even farther. According to Jennifer Freyer, Director of Sales and Marketing for Accelerated Analytics, “Suppliers can take advantage of different reports, easy to read dashboards, and geographic heatmaps. It’s easy to click and see where inventories are too high or too low, then drill down to store level for specifics. They can track promotions and see which stores are hitting or not hitting sales goals.” By using those kinds of tools you can decide to adjust your product mix to better allocate items that may be in short supply.

Make it a reality

Because POS data is delivered weekly, you can look at trends and predict item performance down to the shelf level in order to plan your recommendations to store buyers. But most vendors don’t have the time and technical ability to deal with the inbound data, much less the complexity of converting the various data files into a common format, then apply the analytical processes needed to produce easily understandable results. Fortunately services are available from experts in doing exactly this kind of work and can do the heavy lifting for you. They deliver a variety of reports that have been field tested and designed based on common issues suppliers face and they are customizable to meet the specifics of your business, products, and customers.

Suppliers can gain insights and help to direct their field staff to look for and correct conditions that can improve sales of their products, like improper placement on shelves. But of possibly more impact may be the ability to assist the retailer’s product managers with their responsibilities by proactively advising them on opportunities to make changes in product assortments, then track and report those results to show their effectiveness. Forward thinking suppliers are already taking advantage of the data their customers give them to sell more of their products.

Scott Koegler is a technology journalist with 20 years experience writing about business, computing and technology topics.

Accelerated Analytics Customer Coty Enters Strategic Partnership with Burberry

Source: us.burberry.com

According to a press release issued today, Accelerated Analytics Customer Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) has entered into an agreement to acquire the long-term global license rights for Burberry Beauty luxury fragrances, cosmetics and skincare. Under the agreement, Coty will develop, manufacture and distribute the full range of Burberry Beauty products globally. The exclusive agreement will take effect in October of this year, subject to regulatory approvals.

Camillo Pane, CEO Coty, said, “We are proud to welcome Burberry as a strategic partner of Coty.  We look forward to growing further Burberry’s luxury beauty products using Coty’s world-class expertise in developing and bringing to market beauty brands.”

Burberry, which moved its beauty division in-house in 2013 after licensing it to a third party, said it would retain creative control of the division, while benefitting from “Coty’s deep beauty industry expertise and first-class global distribution.” Known for its British-made trenchcoats, Burberry’s fragrances include My Burberry and Mr. Burberry and it has expanded into cosmetics in recent years to help introduce its brand to younger consumers.

Coty and Burberry will work in partnership on delivering best-in-class creative executions and leverage Coty’s global capabilities in beauty strategy, innovation, supply-chain and go-to-market.  Burberry beauty products will be sold in leading luxury beauty retailers globally as well as in Burberry stores and digital channels.

Commenting on the strategic partnership, Christopher Bailey, Chief Creative and Chief Executive Officer, Burberry, said, “We are delighted to partner with Coty, a world leader in luxury fragrance and make-up.  Working with a global partner of Coty’s scale and expertise will help drive the next phase of Burberry Beauty’s development and position this business for growth.”

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Accelerated Analytics provides retail POS reporting and analytics by brand and by house for over 20 retailers for Coty’s Philosophy brand and their newly acquired P&G brands.

JC Penney to Close 138 Stores in June. What’s the Impact on Sephora Inside JC Penney?

JC Penney announced it will be closing 138 stores and a supply chain facility in Lakeland, FL. The retailer explained the closings were strategically chosen to cut costs in order to focus growing sales at its best-performing locations. Texas and Minnesota were the hardest hit, with 9 and 8 store closures, respectively.

“We believe closing stores will also allow us to adjust our business to effectively compete against the growing threat of online retailers,” Penney CEO Marvin R. Ellison said in February. “It is essential to retain those locations that present the best expression of the J.C. Penney brand and function as a seamless extension of the omni-channel experience through online order fulfillment, same-day pick up, exchanges and returns.”

What will be the impact to Sephora Inside JC Penney stores? Today there are Sephora locations in over 574 JC Penney stores across the US. Using a smaller square footage footprint than a standard Sephora cosmetics store, each one is located in the middle of a JC Penney store and features the Sephora branding and beauty product assortment. This has been an extremely successful venture for JC Penney and Sephora. Comparing the Sephora Inside JC Penney store list to the list of closings reveals a very small impact to this partnership, with only 5 of the closing stores having a Sephora inside: one each in CT, IL, and MI and two stores in PA.

Sources: Chain Store Age, Sephora.com

Small Business Optimism Remains Near Record High

Small Business Optimism IndexEach month as our team researches and compiles the Retail Industry Briefing Book, different facts and figures stand out, and we inevitably notice trends and patterns in the data we report. Notable this month was the number of macro-economic indexes that are currently on an upward trend, and the 90-day temperature outlook, which was certainly appealing as a large portion of the country was in the midst of a snow-storm this week. But it’s the Small Business Optimism Index that deserves some discussion as we head into the second quarter of 2017.

Compiled since 1986 by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) via a monthly survey, the Small Business Optimism Index remained at one of its highest readings in 43 years February, as small business awaits new healthcare law, tax reform, and regulatory relief form Washington, according to the NFIB. The index fell 0.6 points in February to 105.3, yet remains very high. The slight decline follows the largest month-over-month increase in the survey’s history in December, and another increase in January.

“It is clear from our data that optimism skyrocketed after the election because small business owners anticipated a change in policy,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “The sustainability of this surge and whether it will lead to actual economic growth depends on Washington’s ability to deliver on the agenda that small business voted for in November. If the health care and tax policy discussions continue without action, optimism will fade.”

To Duggan’s point, the post-election optimism hasn’t translated into an increase in business spending and hiring yet. Despite some movement in Washington on deregulation and the current administration’s plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, small businesses want to see more progress on both tax reform and healthcare, according to NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkleberg.

The job openings component reached its highest level since December 2000, but finding skilled workers remains a top issue for 44 percent of businesses, which report few or no qualified workers to fill positions. Also notable, capital spending among small business owners rose two points to 62 percent. This is the second highest reading since 2007, indicative that companies may be starting to invest.Business Reports

Accelerated Analytics reports on the Small Business Optimism index each month in our Retail Industry Briefing Book (page 14 of the March edition), in addition to over a dozen macro-economic indicators and indexes. You’ll also find stock prices for over 30 major retail brands and retailers, retail sales by sector, weather outlooks and more. The RIBB is a free resource provided to our customers, partners and retail and supply chain professionals. To request the latest copy of the RIBB, simply complete the short form below. Past editions of the RIBB can be found in the Resource Center of our website.

What’s New in Digital and Social Media for Beauty?

At Accelerated Analytics, I work with over 20 beauty brands to supply key reports and analysis of how their products are performing at their retail stores. Our expertise, based on years of working with beauty retailers like Dillard’s, Ulta, Sephora and Nordstrom, help account executives, planners and sales reps to track sales to goals, store display marketing, promotional effectiveness and inventory stock levels. I joined the WWD Digital Beauty Forum in New York on Tuesday to hear where the beauty industry is going with digital marketing and social media. Beauty Industry and Social Media

It was an inspiring day! From hearing how the Estee Lauder brand Smashbox is revolutionizing how to use social media influencers to expand their brand awareness, to learning how beauty brands like NYX and Shiseido are using digital technologies to expand social experiences online and in stores to broaden their customers’ experiences was mind blowing. In the ever-important retail need to address the increasing customer desire to have an experience, and not just shop, the beauty industry is using technology in a variety of ways to personalize what they can do for their customers and make their brand fresh, exciting and fun!

Beauty products are personal. Ecommerce efforts to use digital technology to put colors and skin care effects into a virtual customer’s hands live, is amazing. When a customer is in a store, actually touching products, digital technology gives shoppers a hands-on experience to custom-tailor products. Events and contests around pop-up stores is getting more and more common.

What resonated the most with me is, with so much activity and options for shoppers, and the very fast pace of beauty sales, the ability to see what is selling organically and where inventory is at all times is critical. I’m excited that our solution helps my beauty customers, like Coty, L’Oreal, Bvlgari and Parlux, to get the insights they need, when they need it, and gives them the opportunity to expand their digital reach to customers and react quickly when these initiatives take off!

Are Omnichannel Shoppers More Valuable to Retailers?

Omnichannel Retail

That’s the question that the Harvard Business Review set out to answer in a recent study conducted between June 2015 and August 2016. They collaborated with a major U.S. Company which operates hundreds of retail stores across the country and studied the behavior of 46,000 shoppers. The customers were asked about “every aspect of their shopping journey with a retailer”, focusing on which channel’s they used and why. The majority of the shoppers who participated – 73% – used multiple channels during their shopping experience and were deemed “omnichannel customers” by the study. Only 7% were online-only shoppers and 20% were store-only shoppers.

In tabulating results, the study considered each app, digital tool and shopping venue provided by the retailer as a separate channel, and discovered that the more channels customers use, the more valuable they are. In fact, the study revealed that omnichannel customers are “more valuable on multiple counts.” They spent an average of 4% more on every shopping occasion in the store, and 10% more online than single-channel customers. Additionally, with every channel that an omnichannel shopper used, they spent more money in the store. For example, compared to shoppers who used just one channel, customers who used four or more channels spent an average of 9% more in the store.

In additional to spending more, omnichannel shoppers were more loyal. According to the study findings, within six months after an omnichannel shopping experience, these customers had logged 23% more repeat shopping trips to the retailer’s stores and were more likely to recommend the brand to family and friends than those who used a single channel.”

Source: Harvard Business Review