Author: Helen Thomas

A recent benchmarking survey of key consumer product metrics by Gartner and IDC Manufacturing Insights found SKU-level forecast error rates one month out had an average of 21.9%. For new products, the error rate grew to 48.3%. In that report, Gartner says consumer goods companies will continue to get better at using POS data and near-term demand signals to improve short term forecast accuracy and replenishment plans. Top performing companies showed forecasting error rates much lower than the averages, dropping to 11.7%, and 34.7% for new products.

Forecasts with high levels of error result in many supply chain issues, such as the wrong product mix – excess inventory of some products and not enough of others, higher overall inventory – excess cash tied up in inventory and poor cash flow, increased waste in production resources and customer service problems.

Gartner says performance leaders are not only working on their forecasting but also leveraging downstream data to better predict how much to replenish based on what is being consumed downstream.

Those leaders “are already working closely with their key retail accounts to manage vendor-managed inventory (VMI) replenishment based on retail warehouse inventory and movements, and some point of sale (POS) data reflecting consumer pull through the pipeline. They set inventory buffers based on product level, average daily demand, range of demand variation and supply reliability. These buffers are reviewed regularly to reflect recent patterns, rather than averaging two years of history to take out the highs and lows.”

In addition, increased analysis of actual SKU-level demand to determine average daily usage, near-term demand patterns and range of variation will improve alignment of buffer inventory to cover demand volatility with less reactive disruption in the upstream supply chain than we see today.

As a result, overall inventory will be reduced because the mix is better aligned with what is selling. There will be less slow-moving and obsolete inventory for those products replenished based on downstream consumption. This will improve cash flow and cash conversion cycle time, and it will reduce write-offs.

Resource: Supply Chain Digest

January US consumer spending barely rose .1 percent, despite cheaper gasoline and a buoyant labor market. Economists are speculating that consumers were using their extra income to pay down debt and boost savings. This was below Wall Street’s expectations for a .4 percent increase.

“Should we be worried about the weakness of underlying sales over the past two months? Possibly,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

“But all the conditions are in place for a period of very strong consumption growth. We still expect to see that strength come through in the retail sales data soon.”

The economy has added more than a million jobs in the past three months and the number of those seeking jobs hit its lowest level since 2007 in December.

Resource: Reuters

Retailers need to figure out how to keep shoppers engaged with their mobile apps so they come back and shop for more, instead of downloading an app, using it once, and then forgetting it or deleting it.

In a recent panel of 250,000 US and 2 million global app users, an engagement measurement of monthly active users (users who shop an app at least once a month) who shop an app at least once a week indicated which retailers rank the highest.

Apps with the highest engagement levels include Neiman Marcus (64.3%), Kohl’s (63.6%), Victoria’s Secret (61.7%), and Groupon (47.8%).  Kohl’s success is attributed to doing a great job highlighting discounts, coupons and deals of the day.

Belk Inc. also has a high level of app engagement with 32.4%. Mobile apps are becoming much more important as digital commerce evolves,” says Ivy Chin, senior vice president of e-commerce and omnichannel digital at Belk. “Our shopper often uses her mobile device to complement her in-store experience, so we developed the Belk app to support that, with easy bar code scanning, coupon integration with Apple’s Passbook wallet, a Belk store finder, integration of e-mail, and social sharing.”

Resource: Internet Retailer.com

“It’s true that retailers have yet to fully make use of location in mobile commerce, but you have to do location right,” Chin says. “Location awareness has to be meaningful for customers and give them the right information and the right messages. This involves understanding how your customers engage with your brand whether they are in-store, online or on a mobile device—a 360-degree view of your customers.”

Francis Blake, 65, joins the Proctor & Gamble Co. board of directors, effective immediately. This announcement comes just a few days after his retirement as chairman of Home Depot. He stepped down from the CEO position in November.

Blake’s extensive retail experience joins Macy’s Inc. CEO Terry Lundgren on the board.

Prior to Home Depot, Blake was general counsel for the US Environmental Protection Agency and deputy counsel to Vice President George H.W. Bush.

“Frank is one of the most respected business leaders in America today. His vision, strategy and focus on execution led Home Depot to strong and sustained business growth,” said P&G CEO A.G. Lafley said. “We will deeply benefit from his management expertise and retail experience.”

Blake also serves on the board of directors of Delta Airlines and the Georgia Aquarium.

Resource: Retailing Today

PwC’s annual global consumer survey of about 1,000 US respondents list Amazon as most favorite retailer with 52% of the vote. Amazon was followed by Walmart with 41% and Target 29%.

These retailers were followed by several department stores. Kohl’s was rated the highest of the department stores with 14% of the vote. Other department stores in the top 10 included Macy’s and J.C. Penny.

Home Depot came in 10^th and was the only DIY retailer to make the list.

The top reason cited by consumers were “Their prices are good”, followed by retailers having the items shoppers want in stock.

The US pattern mirrors the global pattern in another PwC survey.

The survey also captured whether consumers are “showrooming”, or browsing at physical stores but then shopping online. 68% of respondents said they have done so. However, 73% of consumers do the opposite, or “webrooming”, browsing online and buying in stores. Their reasons included delivery fees, being able to touch the merchandise, and getting the merchandise immediately.

PwC: Price Waterhouse Coopers

Resource: MarketWatch

Retail sales in the US shrank 0.9 percent in December. It is the biggest drop since January as demand fell for nine of thirteen major retail categories:

Electronic and Appliance stores, making up 2% of retailers, fell -1.6%

Clothing retailers, making up 5% of retailers, fell -0.3%

Online stores, making up 9.2% of retailers, fell -0.3%

Building Material/Garden dealers, making up 6% of retailers, fell -1.9%

In contrast, receipts rose at Furniture stores 0.8%, Health Care store 0.5% and Sporting Goods/Hobby/Book & Music 0.2%.

Total sales for the 12 months of 2014 were up 4% from 2013.

Source: Trading Economics

In an effort to better compete with online and big-box office supply retailers, Staples agreed to buy rival Office Depot in a $6.3 billion cash and stock deal. Staples said it started discussion with Office Depot in September, and the deal is expected to close by the end of 2015.

Amazon.com and Walmart have eaten into the sales of the office supply retailers.

Staples has market value of $11 billion, while Office Depot, its nearest rival, has a market value of $4 billion. Regulators denied Staples’ previous attempt to buy Office Depot in 1997 due to antitrust concerns. However, the FTC approved Office Depot’s $976 million acquisition of OfficeMax in 2013, citing increased competition in the office supply industry.

“This transaction delivers great value for our shareholders and creates a company ideally positioned to serve our customers and grow over the long term,” said Office Depot CEO Roland Smith. “It is also an endorsement of our many accomplishments and the tremendous success we’ve had integrating Office Depot and OfficeMax over the past year. We look forward to bringing our experience and knowledge to the new organization.”

“This is a transformational acquisition which enables Staples to provide more value to customers, and more effectively compete in a rapidly evolving competitive environment,” said Ron Sargent, Staples’ Chairman and CEO, in a statement. “We expect to recognize at least $1 billion of synergies as we aggressively reduce global expenses and optimize our retail footprint. These savings will dramatically accelerate our strategic reinvention which is focused on driving growth in our delivery businesses and in categories beyond office supplies.”

Sources: Wall Street Journal, RetailWire

Walmart COO Judith McKenna met with more than 400 suppliers last Friday to discuss her priorities for the retailer’s domestic business. The event was held at the Sam’s Club home office, the day after Walmart opened 33 Neighborhood Markets.

Key takeaways were simplification, best practice sharing, supply chain opportunities and small format growth.  McKenna mentioned several times throughout her speech the importance of simplification and the need for closer collaboration between merchants and operators at Walmart, using the phrase “Better Together”.

By “simplification”, Walmart means a fundamental concept of being an every day low cost operator by improving execution, reducing costs and improving sales. McKenna oversaw supply chain in the U.K., where E-commerce is more advanced than in the U.S. She views increased integration of digital and physical as a major opportunity. “We have work to do on the store experience and customer experience,” McKenna said.

McKenna has been visiting a lot of store to identify opportunities that will drive simplification.

“We want to grow and grow with you,” McKenna said, which hit home with the suppliers in attendance.

Source: Retailing Today

January 30, 2015

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported 2.6 percent annualized growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter of 2014, which is a little below consensus, but closer to the long-term trend growth rate of the economy.  The long-term trend is about 2.0 percent.

The resiliency of consumer spending shouldn’t be surprising as it is fundamentally supported by strong job growth, falling oil prices and relatively optimistic consumers, as suggested by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index released earlier this week.  The fundamental factors supporting spending are the strongest they’ve been in this expansion.

Investment in equipment dropped by 1.9 percent, mostly due to weakness in investment in industrial and transportation equipment, which is probably related to investment cuts in the energy sector.

The current pace of economic growth is likely to sustain strong job growth in the coming months and further reduce the unemployment rate.  The Employment Cost Index, released today as well, showed ongoing acceleration in wage growth, with wages in the private sector moving up to 2.3 percent year on year.  Further acceleration is to be expected.  The acceleration in wage growth increases the likelihood of an increase in the Fed interest rate by mid-2015.

Despite the current strength in economic activity, the downward pressure on profits, the strong dollar, and the weakening global economy are likely to partly offset the strength in consumer spending.  We do not see further acceleration in GDP growth as a likely scenario.  Moving forward, we expect the U.S. economy to grow at about a 2.5 percent rate in the coming quarters.

Source: The Conference Board