October 15, 2014
The National Retail Federation calculates that September retail sales – excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants – decreased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month yet increased 4.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year. While seasonal factors were apparent, especially in August’s downward revision, the drop-off in retail sales was worse than expected.
“Retail sales were surprisingly weak in September,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Despite increasing consumer confidence, an uptick in employment, lower gas prices, and with inflation in check, consumers still slowed spending. Reconciling consumer confdence with consumer spending continues to be a challenge.”
“The consumer appears to have a brighter economic outlook heading into the holiday shopping season,” Kleinhenz said. “However the erratic stock market, geopolitical events and Ebola may contribute to continued volatility. Despite the weak results this month, our outlook remains positive.”
Most retail categories witnessed a decrease in sales in September, including clothing, online and nonstore retailers, but the release of new smartphones lifted electronics sales.
Additional findings from NRF’s retail sales analysis include:
- Building material and garden equipment and supplies delaers:
- -1.1% month-to-month
- +7% year-over-year
- Clothing and clothing accessories stores:
- -1.2% month-to-month
- +3.3% year-over-year
- Electronics and appliance stores:
- +3.4% month-to-month
- +8% year-over-year
- Furniture and home furnishing stores:
- -0.8% month-to-month
- +2.5% year-over-year
- General merchandise stores:
- +0.2% month-to-month
- +2.1% year-over-year
- Health and personal care stores:
- +0.3% month-to-month
- +8.1% year-over-year
- Online and other nonstore retailers:
- -1.1% month-to-month
- +8.2% year-over-year
- Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores:
- -0.1% month-to-month
- +2.7% year-over-year
Source: Retailing Today
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