November 12, 2014
World economic growth, which stands at 3.2 percent for 2014, will accelerate modestly to 3.4 percent in 2015, The Conference Board reported today.
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook provides output growth projections for 2015, 2015-2019, and 2020-2025, including 11 major regions and over 50 mature and emerging economies. Overall, annual global growth is projected to average 3.3 percent from 2015-2019, but could decline to an average of 2.7 percent in the period 2020-2025 on the basis of the current trend. According to the Outlook, long-term growth around 3 percent is sufficient to sustain a moderate increase in global living standards, but is too low to meet all the future challenges posed by rising middle classes in emerging markets and aging populations in mature economies.
“Growth in 2014 met our cautious projections, which were at the low end of analysts’ views,” said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “Optimists are poised to be similarly disappointed in 2015 – and more so as the long-term growth trend dips below 3 percent. While many in both advanced and emerging economies continue to await a ‘full recovery’ to pre-crisis growth rates, we believe businesses and policymakers would stand better to focus on managing three key macroeconomic certainties that will define the slowdown in the decade ahead: First, a looming labor shortage; second, a drop in productivity growth; and finally, a lack of investment in productive assets.”
Recovery “Bonus” Shrinking for Mature Economies
Across the advanced economies, the Outlook predicts 2.3 percent growth in 2015, compared to 1.9 percent in 2014. Growth in the Euro Area should improve to 1.6 percent from 0.9 percent in 2014; Europe as a whole is projected to grow 2.0 percent. This modest spike in recovery is expected to last a few years and is apt to bring European growth somewhat higher – and closer to U.S. levels – than anticipated by the current consensus forecasts. Beyond a brief period of upside potential, however, the long-term picture remains stagnant: The Outlook sees Euro Area growth averaging 1.9 percent across 2015-2019, before dipping back to 1.2 percent in 2020-2025.
Meanwhile, U.S. growth is expected to rise from 2.2 percent in 2014 to 2.6 percent in 2015. This improvement reflects an economy steadily returning to full capacity – and will be difficult to sustain into the future as the risks of slower productivity growth sink in. In the medium-term, the Outlook does expect the U.S. to sustain 2.4 percent annual growth during 2015-2019, but the long-term trend sees growth slowing to just 1.9 percent in 2020-2025. In the same two periods, Japan is expected to grow at 1.4 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
“For much of this decade, forecasters have assumed that mature economies still face a large output gap between their actual production and their potential performance if operating at full capacity,” said van Ark. “This offered a recovery ‘bonus’ that would allow advanced economies to make up what was lost in the recession at growth rates higher than the longer-term trend. While the U.S., Europe, and others will still see some of these effects in 2015 and the following few years, we believe the output gaps have shrunk considerably and any post-recession ‘bonus growth’ will be relatively small and fleeting.”
Easy Growth Coming to and End in Emerging Economies – and the World
From the late 1990s until recently, emerging markets have powered the global economy, based on an unprecedented growth differential between emerging and advanced economies. This historical anomaly is fading as many emerging economies are entering a phase in which rapid catch-up growth has come to an end, with the need for serious, long-term and politically problematic economic reforms coming to the fore. In 2014, positive growth surprises in India and Mexico couldn’t offset major disappointments in Brazil and Russia, while China’s extended “soft fall” proceeded apace.
Overall, growth in developing and emerging economies is projected to inch down to 4.7 percent in 2015, compared to 4.8 percent in 2014 and 6.2 percent in 2010-2013. The slowdown will be largely driven by the Chinese economy, for which growth is anticipated to decline further in 2015 to 6.5 percent, down from 7.3 percent in 2014. Other large emerging markets will remain stagnant or see slight improvements in 2015, with growth projected at 5.5 percent in India; 4.3 percent in the rest of developing Asia; 1.8 percent in Latin America; and 3.4 percent in the Middle East and North Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa will see solid growth improvement, from 4.2 to 5.0 percent, while growth will rebound to a still-anemic 1.4 percent in Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Europe.
Looking further ahead, the medium trend in Chinese growth is projected to fall to an average of 5.5 percent in 2015-2019 and 3.9 percent in 2020-2025. The corresponding numbers in India are 5.5 percent and 5.0 percent, meaning the Indian economy is likely to be growing significantly faster than China’s by the beginning of the next decade, making it a potential bright spot and strengthening contender in the global market. Growth throughout 2015-25 should average 3.1 percent in Brazil and 2.8 percent in Mexico. By the middle of the 2020s, emerging markets will still substantially outpace advanced economies – growing at an average 3.7 percent versus 1.8 percent – but by perhaps the smallest margin in a generation.
“While the growth contributions from emerging economies are by no means gone, and their growth will continue to be faster than that of mature economies, the significant downshift in their growth trajectories should make us aware that success from the recent past provides no guarantees for the future,” explained van Ark. “For the year ahead in particular, the confluence of multiple geopolitical fissures in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Western Asia, and (to a less urgent extent) the South China Sea make it even less likely that an emerging-market boom will ride to the rescue of global growth, as it has in the recent past.”
While the global picture appears downcast, it does offer opportunities for firms and governments with a realistic understanding of the challenges. Ultimately, this decade of slower growth could offer a foundation for overcoming the risk of extended stagnation.
“At 3 percent global growth on average,” said van Ark, “the next ten years may come to look like the 1980s – a time of modest growth during which structural reforms in many economies facilitated the transition from the old post-World War II ‘golden years’ to an era driven by the rise of services and new innovations.”
Source: The Conference Board
Related posts
