The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increases In February

March 10, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in February.  The Index now stands at 116.39, up from 115.99 (a downward revision) in January.  This represents a 4.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“February’s job report and the ongoing improvement in the Employment Trends Index should provide some relief for those concerned about weakness in the U.S. economy and labor market,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macoreconomic Research at The Conference Board.  “The majority of the ETI’s components have been steadily rising in recent months, suggesting solid job growth will continue in the coming months.”

February’s increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were:  Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence Survey Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find Jobs “Hard to Get,” and Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers Job Openings (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board